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Shmuel Leib Melamud
A Forecast for Your Own Good

Weather Service знал о том, что снежная буря ослабла, но решил не менять прогноз, чтобы жители не расслаблялись.

This is not one of those “beat up on the Weather Service for getting the forecast wrong” harangues, however. For the incredible story that came out the day after the storm is that, in fact, the National Weather Service had actually gotten the forecast right internally — but then deliberately concealed the information from the public so as not to cause “confusion.” By Monday afternoon, the day before the storm, most of the computer models used by the Weather Service were projecting the inland turn and dramatically lessened snowfall in the coastal cities. But the weather bureaucrats decided to stick with the old forecast in which they no longer had confidence because, as the agency later said, “a dramatic change in the snowfall forecast could produce an unwelcome result of less readiness and vigilance.” It “might have given people the wrong message that the storm was no longer a threat,” the chief of forecast operations explained. “It still was, but the real danger was from ice and sleet.” And, as a meteorologist supporting the Weather Service decision said, “ice is a far greater hazard,” anyway.

https://www.city-journal.org/html/forecast-your-own-good-15072.html

Замечательный способ укрепить доверие к экспертам.

Yes, keeping information away from people to maintain a panic mode certainly helped maintain “readiness and vigilance” . . . this time. The next time NWS warns of an impending catastrophic weather pattern, will it get the same response? Or will their diminished credibility lead a lot more people to discount their warnings as yet another attempt to manipulate public response? … It’s as if no one ever read the story of the boy who cried wolf.

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2017/03/16/national-weather-service-blizzard-warnings-a-snow-job-n243342

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Эксперту, который считает, что через год или два весь этот «институт экспертности» накроется, рационально действовать именно так: подмухлевать прямо сейчас в общественно-полезную сторону (классическое Кейнсово "in the long run ишак и падишах помрут"). Иногда я подозреваю, что многие примерно так и видят ситуацию. Но прогноз-погодники?..

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Tigra (updated )

Как похоже на антиковид-меры "для психологического воздействия".

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В этом и есть левизна головного мозга: "я иксперд, я лучча знаю шо фам бытлу палесна!" То, что быдло за такие вещи может и забодать в голову просто не приходит. Ибо времена не те, скот комолый давно.

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